US And China Will Never Be Archenemies
After writing the previous post, "US And China Will Never Be Allies," now it's time for me to flip the coin.
First of all, despite the apparent rupture in ideology between the two countries as well as all the grand-standing by politicians and the ignorant mass on both sides, the actual ideological differences are much less dramatic than "democracy vs communism," "freedom vs oppression."
The US brand of democracy and liberty is far from the most radical, puritan experiments in human history. The reason why it stands out in this particular point in time is mostly because, well, it's worked out so far.
The Chinese brand of communism is simply no longer. The current government in China is among the least ideology-driven in the world. They're collectively driven by one thing and one thing only: stay in power. Everything they do, regardless of names and slogans -- economic growth, anti-Taiwan-independence, crushing down on Falundong, anti-Japanese/US protests -- is motivated by this singular obsession.
It's also worth noting that, historically, neither US nor China has ever fought a single war over ideology. And it's unlikely to happen in the future unless the neocons take root, which they haven't yet. And this is good news.
Reagan managed to slap the "Evil Empire" labe on USSR and get it to stick. But I don't think it's possible to pull the same trick on China. Some old-fashioned Maoists and ultra-nationalists in China would very much like to do it to the US. But they will never be back to the mainstream unless US is perceived to humiliate China in some big way, e.g., throwing its full weight behind Taiwan independence or helping Japan winning another war against China.
Secondly, there's no unforgetable, unforgivable historical score to be settled between US and China.
Where the two countries will continue to feel frictions are nothing more than practicality and convenience, things like trade and oil.
Oil is a big issue. But, as new technologies emerge and improve, it's highly unlikely that modern civilization will be eliminated for lack of oil.
Does this mean US and China will never fight another war? Quite the contrary, I think some kind of war here is very likely over the next few decades (I'll write about this later). But if it's any comfort, I'm saying war should be avoidable and there's no reason for the two countries to enemies for any significant length of time.
So, there you have it: too big and far away to be allies, too pragmatic and rational to be enemies.
This can be quite annoying and inconvenient. But then again, going to the bathroom is quite annoying and inconvenient. Such is life.
What I'm worried about is that stupidity, ignorance, and impatience may escalate the frustration into direct conflict.
First of all, despite the apparent rupture in ideology between the two countries as well as all the grand-standing by politicians and the ignorant mass on both sides, the actual ideological differences are much less dramatic than "democracy vs communism," "freedom vs oppression."
The US brand of democracy and liberty is far from the most radical, puritan experiments in human history. The reason why it stands out in this particular point in time is mostly because, well, it's worked out so far.
The Chinese brand of communism is simply no longer. The current government in China is among the least ideology-driven in the world. They're collectively driven by one thing and one thing only: stay in power. Everything they do, regardless of names and slogans -- economic growth, anti-Taiwan-independence, crushing down on Falundong, anti-Japanese/US protests -- is motivated by this singular obsession.
It's also worth noting that, historically, neither US nor China has ever fought a single war over ideology. And it's unlikely to happen in the future unless the neocons take root, which they haven't yet. And this is good news.
Reagan managed to slap the "Evil Empire" labe on USSR and get it to stick. But I don't think it's possible to pull the same trick on China. Some old-fashioned Maoists and ultra-nationalists in China would very much like to do it to the US. But they will never be back to the mainstream unless US is perceived to humiliate China in some big way, e.g., throwing its full weight behind Taiwan independence or helping Japan winning another war against China.
Secondly, there's no unforgetable, unforgivable historical score to be settled between US and China.
Where the two countries will continue to feel frictions are nothing more than practicality and convenience, things like trade and oil.
Oil is a big issue. But, as new technologies emerge and improve, it's highly unlikely that modern civilization will be eliminated for lack of oil.
Does this mean US and China will never fight another war? Quite the contrary, I think some kind of war here is very likely over the next few decades (I'll write about this later). But if it's any comfort, I'm saying war should be avoidable and there's no reason for the two countries to enemies for any significant length of time.
So, there you have it: too big and far away to be allies, too pragmatic and rational to be enemies.
This can be quite annoying and inconvenient. But then again, going to the bathroom is quite annoying and inconvenient. Such is life.
What I'm worried about is that stupidity, ignorance, and impatience may escalate the frustration into direct conflict.
posted by Bo Peng | 12:15 AM
2 Comments:
Interesting. What do think China will do? Move West or take out Taiwan?
How about both? ;>
My optimism about China's future is solely based on the slow but persistent and consistent emergence of rationality in policy and governance. The slow and persistent character, while not good for headlines, suggests that it may be more reliable and sustainable than dramatic landslides.
If this cautious optimism bears out, then China will continue to get integrated into the global village, no doubt painfully slow to some. So, as long as Taiwan government doesn't rock the boat, status quo will be jointly maintained by China and US. Then, if/when China becomes sufficiently open and rich, independence will be a non-starter.
My personal view on Taiwan independence has long been mostly indifference. But during a half-year stay in Beijing a few years ago, I realized, much to my surprise, how strongly the common Chinese people feel against it. If Taiwan tests the bottomline, the Chinese government will have no choice but respond by force, or else the Chinese people will kick them out. A good thing, you say? I'm afraid not, because the replacement would necessarily be an ultra-nationalistic one and that's bad news for everyone.
The Bush administration, for all its fault and stupidity, seems to have realized this critical truth. But the public is still largely locked into the communism vs democracy simpleton framework.
Post a Comment
<< Home