US And China Will Never Be Allies

As much as it is to my personal interest and wish for US and China to become true allies, as "true allies" as it gets in international politics, such as US-UK, I have to admit it's not possible before the whole planet is united in a war against alien invaders, e.g., someone shooting an asteroid our way.

The fundamental reasons are very simple:

1. Both US and China are big, in terms of both area/population, and ego/pride.

2. US and China are too far away, in terms of both geography and culture.

What do size and stretch have to do with this issue?

Yup, this is definitely one of the cases where size matters. A lot.

A small country has no insurmountable obstacles in aligning with the US in today's monopolar world structure, as long as they're willing. They may be asked a lot in return if they don't have oil or other strategic value to the US (e.g., a tiny island country in the Pacific surrounded by massive methane ice at the bottom of the ocean, in 2050). But it's a matter of price, unlike selling Conoco to CNOOC (sarcasm intended). And for US, there may not be much upside, but at least there's no downside. So, as long as the price is right, why not?

And if US deems a small country valuable as an ally, it'd be quite difficult for it to resist. (Think Iraq.)

In the case of a big country like China, however, long-term, strategic, comprehensive alliance with US is undesirable for either party, nor is it possible even if there were strong will on both sides.

Why not?

From the US perspective, having an ally carries responsibility and liability besides the benefit. China being so big, any time it takes a dump, it's a huge stinking mountain. Market access, pollution, natural disasters, potential refugee surge...US can ill afford any of the potential demand and liability an allied China poses.

From the China perspective, it can never be an equal partner with US. As it is now, China can only be a subordinate to US. The 2000 year history of Central Kingdom, coupled with the constant humiliation by the west and Japan over the past 200 years, dictates that the Chinese people will not accept such a position. And if/when China gains equal power to US, whom would they ally against?

The perpetual feud, albeit low-grade, between US and France is a testimony to the size and history effects. And we'll see more and more US-Germany feud going forward, due to the same effects. (The monopolar power structure likely has its inherent instability. But that's another topic.)

And even if some ideological saints get installed in both governments by divine intervention, they'd immediately face thorny practical concerns such as sharing oil, haggling over trade and monetary policy, and dealing with pollution. These issues will remain for as long as humans life is in the current awkward, inconvenient biological form.

I'd go one step further. Even if China begs and pleads US for an invasion or by some other means take control of it, US would not do it. It quite simply and frankly can't afford it. By the same token, even if US gets so messed up that it becomes a third-world country and China becomes the sole superpower, the reverse would also be true.

Canada and Mexico are both big. But they're geographically so close to US that they have only one choice: either accept the subordinate position or be assimilated. And because they're so close, US has to accept the liabilities as long as they accept the subordinate position.

Russia will become an US ally before China does. And this does not necessarily have to do with Russians being Caucasian. While Russia has a huge land (at least for now), its population is relatively small. Perhaps more importantly, the cultural difference between Russia and US is more about favorite drinks and sports, not the fundamental underlying value system.

Of course, people know about the US-China cultural disparity.

Americans eat hamburgers, Chinese eat Kung Pao Chicken. And that's great. It provides alternatives, however undesirable in their respective own right, when you get sick and tired of hamburgers or Kung Pao Chicken. And should the alternative be unavailable, it takes a person as short as a few years, or at most one lifetime, to adjust.

Americans speak that blurry, incomprehensible mumble jumble, Chinese speak that punctuative, funny-intoned, incomprehensible mumble jumble. And that's OK, too. It provides mildly amusing intellectual challenges, and a lot of jobs. And it takes a person as short as a few years, or at most one lifetime, to adjust.

Americans are individualistic and hold deep suspicion and almost-blind distrust against the elite, Chinese are collectivists and hold deep respect and almost-blind trust towards the elite.

Now this is a bit of a problem.

Big words like individualism vs. collectivism, elitism vs. popularism are not just impressive-sounding at cocktail parties, they consist the core of a value system. It takes at least several generations to change the value system of a large society in any significant way. And I dare say the rupture in value system is even deeper than that in religion, though less likely to escalate into such visible and violent manifestation as the latter.

This is, of course, a general problem of pan-Chinese cultural circle vs. the western world.

Small countries like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan (ok, region...sheesh, relax would ya?), and Singapore were forced upon with the American culture and political/legal/economic systems after WWII. They are more westernized than China. But even with their much smaller size and the forced, abrupt transformation, the characteristics of the pan-Chinese cultural value system are still unmistakable 50 years after.